What does solar actually pay back in 2026?
The 30% federal residential solar tax credit expired on December 31, 2025. This calculator uses EIA state electricity rates and NREL sun-hour data to estimate payback for residential systems under today's rules — not the rules that expired.
Estimate your solar payback
Enter your ZIP and the system size you're considering. We'll pull your state's average residential electricity rate and an annual sun-hour figure to estimate production and break-even years.
Enter a valid US ZIP to see your estimate.
Browse by state
Each state page shows the average residential electricity rate, sun-hour range, and remaining state-level incentives in plain English.
- Alaska
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- District of Columbia
- Delaware
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Iowa
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Massachusetts
- Maryland
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Mississippi
- Montana
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- New York
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Virginia
- Vermont
- Washington
- Wisconsin
- West Virginia
- Wyoming
Read the 2026 guides
- What changed when the 30% federal solar tax credit expired
Section 25D sunset on 2025-12-31. Here's what residential buyers actually lose, and what remains.
- Net metering by state in 2026
Full retail, net billing, avoided cost, or none — a state-by-state map of how your utility values exported solar.
- Solar leases and PPAs vs. owning panels
When a lease makes sense, when it destroys payback, and the lien risk that surprises home sellers.
- Battery storage payback math
Time-of-use arbitrage, NEM 3.0 in California, and when a battery actually earns its $10k+ price tag.
- How to read your utility bill before going solar
Find the four numbers that matter — average kWh, true effective rate, demand charge, and net usage.
- Solar + EV combined ROI math
If you charge an EV at home, every panel pays back faster. Here's the back-of-envelope by miles driven.